AFDS: Who Ideates For Africa?

By Duncan Koome & Passy Amayo

On 26 April 2024, the first dialogue session was held on the theme, Who Ideates Africa’s Future? The session was first and foremost a reactivation of the NGFP African network around a potentially viable subject that would allow them to participate in shaping their continental future by applying foresight to not just ideate that future for Africa in theory, but to produce a treatise of their own that would help the member states of the African Union first, then the United Nations, understand the necessity of building this theory of change from local and regional standpoint to realise an ideal future for Africa.

Of more importance, the dialogue session centred around a critical discussion on the factors shaping Africa’s future and who the stakeholders/players behind it. Arthur Muliro, Head of SID’s Regional Office for Africa, was invited as senior African futurist and thought leader to share insights on the theme with NGFP Africa members. He raised pertinent questions and concerns regarding various aspects of development, governance, technology, healthcare, and socio-cultural dynamics in the continent.

Governance and Economic Influence

Ideation & Creation of African Futures

The question, who is currently shaping Africa’s future is a complex one. Issues touching on economic influence, development investments, and aid were mentioned as critical factors for the discussion moving forward. The participant emphasized the importance of understanding who lends money to Africa and who invests in its trade and development; in full circumspect of what interests drive their investments.

Democracy and Policy Direction

There was a fostered concern regarding who affronts or informs government policy directions in Africa, particularly in the context of development, democracy, civic education and engagement. Has Africa ever been independent in its governance and policy direction? Most often than not, it’s evident that we have always been under the direct influence of foreign policy since Harry Truman’s Point Four program during the post-WWII era to influence scientific and industrial policy in underdeveloped countries. This was done as technical aid and economic assistance from agencies like the Technical Cooperation Administration (1949) which later became the Foreign Operations Administration (late 1950s) and today, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). A large portion of USAID’s budget for Africa is dedicated to health programs, agricultural development, economic growth, peace and security, and governance. 1,2 Other aid agencies like UKAID followed suit, with the Foreign Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO), with its finance institution the British International Investment, formerly the Commonwealth Development Corporation.

Technology, Innovations and Data Governance

Tech Futures

The dialogue touched on the question, who previously and currently runs tech-systems in Africa and how are data collection, protection, safe storage and archiving currently managed? The feedback and responses from participants mainly touched on the need to embed national resources to decolonize the technology platforms yet forgetting the conundrum of who owns the technology. Is it Huawei? IBM or Intel?

For example, if the Kenyan Cabinet Secretary for ICT found no problem with a foreign company offering cryptocurrency for retinal scans to unsuspecting Kenyans, we really need to question our competence and understanding of the risks and safeguards the ministry mandated with protecting public data. Economically, over 350,000 scans were done in Kenya equating to over KES2 billion injected into the economy from cryptocurrency that was unlicensed and unregulated.Who knows how many unique retinal scans were done in Sudan and Ghana? And how many understood the relation to Digital IDs and Universal Basic Income? We suppose even fewer. So much remains unanswered, and the dialogue

Healthcare: African Health Futures

The responsibility for African healthcare was a major concern, with a focus on identifying key stakeholders and influencers in this sector. One of the burning questions that emerged was, who is facilitating the research behind our health and diseases problems/concerns? Perhaps a question to forward for research by the NGFP Health Futures Hub, under the coordination of Dr Charles Umeh (NGFP Nigeria) and Paul Ngangula (NGFP Zambia).

Perhaps to paint the current picture, Africa is currently witnessing bilateral support and foreign direct investments in our health sector beyond our own contribution from taxpayers. This provides for the sinister window of control by western nations on health and medical solutions taken or approved by our national health agencies.

Case in point here would be the recent COVID19 pandemic which saw Kenya receive millions of therapeutic vials as ‘donations’ from foreign countries, like Denmark, without clear agreements or tests done locally to inform if such donations were fit for use/consumption to our populace. This concern on AstraZeneca vaccines causing clots and thrombocytopenia were taken seriously in many European countries that later donated their batches to Kenya as was cited with Denmark, but also France & Germany.

Africa is not a stranger to such unethical and moral dilemmas in foreign scientific studies carried out on African people and this was witnessed during the zidovudine trials in Africa in the mid-late 1990s.

Kenyan President Ruto during an official State visit the U.S. in May 2024, a number of commitments were made with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that should have raised concerns on why the same institution that financed and carried out the Tuskegee Syphilis experiments on African-American communities in Macon County, Alabama, would now share a duty of care on Africans on their continent barely 52 years after the most outrageous biomedical research study in U.S. history.

President Ruto oversaw the signing of an MOU between the Ministry of Health, Kenya Medical Research Institute and Dr. Kayla Laserson, Director Global Health Centre, CDC, that would eclipse a previous engagement with Wellcome Trust. It is also well worth noting that part of the MOU touched on the implementation of Global Health Security Agenda which was a brainchild of the CDC back in 2014 when they were instrumenting global health control carrying out gain-of-function research with the Zika virus.

Such concerns circle back to the question on who is responsible for and who is running our medical research activities if these outbreaks that follow foreign research are allowed to continue.

Socio-Cultural and Environmental Challenges

Sociocultural disrupts

The participants had concerns over the current and future socio-cultural issues facing the continent. Historically celebrated as the breadbasket of the Greco-Roman empire, Africa is now struggling to develop its means of production due to overarching AID assistance that is stifling their own ability to fend and produce for their families and communities. It is this influence, coming from Western development AID agencies that have disrupted our homegrown industries, skills and the culture in agriculture. We have organisations like FAO who have been around for decades having not yet eradicated hunger with 20% of Africans still languishing in poverty and malnutrition. By 2025, the Food & Agricultural Organization will clock 80 years of operation in Africa since it was founded; somehow, hunger has been on the increase since 2018 while Africa and other developing countries have seen decreasing outlook on food and nutritional aspects.

Such sociocultural disrupts give rise to poverty as a major impediment coupled with deteriorating health and wellness of a large chunk of African communities within arid and semiarid areas. Lack of proper diet/nutrition and economic independence leads to other concerns such as stunted childhood development and poor educational outcomes, directly impacting the health and future of both current and future African populations.

The question that still lingers heavily on our minds as NGFP Africa members is, how did we move from a highly agrarian continent that traded and exported minerals, agricultural produce and labour to the West and North to becoming a highly dependent money-based economy?

Population

The population problem has also sparked numerous debates among dialogue participants, especially around the idea that the earth and its resources are overburdened by the growing number of humans; reminiscent of the 1972 report ‘Limits to Growth’, a theory disseminated by the infamous Club of Rome, in which the premise that the earth would not be able to support population and economic growth beyond 2100 if humans did not impose limits to their exponential productivity.

Although the research was moot as a scenario, it addressed and pushed for limited growth on population increase, resource depletion, agricultural and industrial production and pollution generation. We can also view this from a contrarian perspective, as witnessed in some countries such as the EU (1.4 births per female), humans, especially in the global North and Asia, are not growing their population and in most instances – not replacing themselves entirely. Africa is already projected to averagely grow by 30 million annually to 2.2 billion people by 2050 – nearly a third of the world population will be African. If China used its population bulge to industrialise and grow its economy, should not Africa work on utilising its growing youthful generation as a labour force to industrialise and build our economic outlook? Maybe we need to optimise food production & water provision to feed our population that will in turn help build our continental capacity.

Identity crisis

According to Patrick Lumumba, Africa ignored the words of Kwame Nkrumah from his address at the UN General Assembly in September 1960 where he emphasized the importance of political independence as a foundation for economic and social development. During the dialogues, the participants and network members agreed that we have indeed failed to end Imperialism in Africa along with its handmaidens, colonialism and neocolonialism. Through these, Africa’s greatest risk was realised through our disunity. We were divided and conquered as anglophone, francophone and lusophone nations. This fragmentation, a legacy of colonialism, has often hindered collective action and cooperation among African countries. We forgot our tribes and communities at the expense of tokenism in aid and misappropriation of our culture and economic independence. We forgot our language and now raise our youth and future generations to learn foreign tongues, systems of education and foreign imposed legalities as laws.

While these have contributed some positives, we stand at a risk of completely losing or forgetting our identities as African people. The NGFP Africa Network, its members and willing and aligning partners are determined to work collectively towards reversing this. A proposal from SID Africa to establish an African Futures Academy, to capacitate a new generation of African leaders, thinkers and doers, in futures and foresighting as well as themes such as the African Identity Question is much welcome and anticipated by NGFP Africa membership in the new year and beyond.

Environmental, Humanitarian Crisis from Climate Change & Land Tenure

There is an existential crisis facing some regions of the world regarding environmental degradation and pollution. Climate change, although a pressing issue for some countries, requires a metered approach towards action. Africa contributes less than 4% of carbon emissions worldwide yet we are expected to enforce actions proposed by western and European nations, who utilised hydrocarbons to develop, centuries before Africa. The pressure for Africa to implement climate actions without sufficient or significant climate financing continues to mount. Bringing to the fore climate justice concerns, as our continent is most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This begs the question tied to the theme of this dialogue, who ideates Africa’s future?

Last year, we witnessed debt-for-nature swaps, where African governments are giving up their pristine land and forests in exchange for leniency in debt management or debt relief. This has already seen eviction of indigenous communities such as the Ogiek in Kenya from their ancestral lands, in the Mau Mau Forests, over a carbon trade deal with Blue Carbon Company, a company from the UAE. Human rights lawyers have argued that such actions are driven by the financial incentives of carbon offsetting schemes, which can lead to the displacement of communities without adequate consultation or compensation. A practice that exacerbates inequalities and lack of fairness, especially for African indigenous communities. Land grabbing also contributes to the environmental crisis that leads to the negative cumulative effects on the climate. Deforestation usually follows in these locations as developments including urbanization of rural areas into real estate projects increases.

This situation underscores the need for more inclusive and equitable approaches to environmental conservation that respect the rights and livelihoods of indigenous communities. Ensuring that these communities are involved in decision-making processes and benefit from conservation efforts is crucial for achieving sustainable and just outcomes. The NGFP Climate Hub, focal pointed by Jeremiah Mbazor (NGFP Nigeria), Ibrahim Afridi (NGFP Pakistan) and Mutile Mwongo (NGFP Kenya) have a brilliant opportunity to influence these conversations as we anticipate the re-introduction of the UNFCCC Regional Climate Weeks ahead of COP30 in Brazil.

Other Issues Impacting Africa’s Future

Poor Representation and Marginalization

Ensuring that all demographic groups, including youth, women, and marginalized communities, have a voice in decision-making processes is crucial for inclusive and intergenerational development in our beloved motherland. This can be achieved through the making and implementation of policies that promote diversity and inclusion in governance and leadership roles. The ethos of the NGFP Africa weaving, programming and partnerships.

Growing Inequality and Poverty

Although already mentioned above, we cannot re-emphasise enough the need to address economic disparities. This may require comprehensive strategies such as social safety nets, equitable access to education and healthcare, and policies that promote job creation and economic growth, especially for the continent’s largely unemployed population. For decades, centuries, even, we have been tracking poverty rates. Tracking is not enough, now more than ever, we must address the systemic issues such as land ownership and equitable access to resources and public services, among others, that have plunged many children of Africa into deeper poverty.

Corruption and Poor Governance

As we have witnessed countless times, corruption undermines development efforts and erodes public trust in institutions. Therefore, a new generation of leaders capable of strengthening governance through transparency, accountability, and the rule of law is urgently needed. Such a generation will ensure anti-corruption measures and reforms are in place for the purpose of building more resilient and effective institutions. And away with the ones that have failed the continent, time and time again.

Conflict

Ongoing conflicts in regions including the Congo, Niger, Sudan, and Somalia have devastating impacts on communities and hinder development. We are yet to see a time when peacebuilding efforts, conflict resolution, and the addressing of the root causes of conflict, such as resource competition and political instability, will result in sustainable peace.

Lack of Civic Engagement

With the wave of elections experienced this year and the aftermath of each, be it devastating and unfortunate like in the case of Mozambique, or celebratory as in the case of Namibia, increasing civic engagement for African citizens is the pathway for ensuring citizens are informed and involved in current and future policy discussions and developments. Some ideas that came out of the dialogue included access to quality education, public awareness campaigns, and creating platforms for dialogue between governments and citizens.

Education and Critical Thinking

We have had it said over and over again that knowledge is power. Therefore, investing in education and fostering critical thinking skills are fundamental for empowering current and future generations to become active citizens. The continent’s education systems need a transformation of syllabuses and educational programs that equip with knowledge and skills that can be used to navigate and influence present and future challenges.

So, what next?

We plan to continue engaging the NGFP Africa Network and other network stakeholders to help understand these and more challenges facing Africa today and in the future. In former years, Africa was exploited for its produce and people who were sold into servitude due to slavery. Pan Africanism became an ideology that tried to stamp out the grapple imperialism had consolidated in Africa since the turn of the Millenium. In our present time, while the first handmaiden of imperialism – colonialism was defeated, the second – neocolonialism continues to direct its agenda and interests on an unprecedented scale. The African Futures Dialogue Series will continue to iterate these conversations and offer spaces for collective intelligence, recommendations for collective actions, until we reach the precipice of elevating the mindset of our people towards building the continent for Africans, by Africans.

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